Priya Patel
In 2024, office building owners are facing a significant amount of debt repayments that could pose a risk to the U.S. economy. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, there are approximately $117 billion in commercial mortgages tied to office buildings that need to be repaid or refinanced this year. However, a large portion of that amount is at risk of defaulting.
One of the reasons these office buildings are struggling financially is that their owners took out loans when interest rates were much lower. The current interest rates are twice as high, making it difficult for owners to afford their monthly repayments. Additionally, commercial mortgages are typically interest-only, which means that the principal amount is left to be paid at the end of the loan term or refinanced to start the process again.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also had a significant impact on office buildings. With many people working from home during quarantine, businesses have downsized their office spaces, leading to widespread vacancies. Estimates suggest that office space usage is now only about half of what it was before the pandemic.
There are a total of 605 office buildings with mortgages expiring soon, and Moody’s Analytics predicts that owners of 224 of them will struggle to refinance. The cities with the most expiring commercial mortgage loans this year are Manhattan, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sunnyvale, and Chicago. Notably, Chicago, New York City, and San Francisco all have office vacancy rates of over 20%.
These looming debt repayments pose a risk to the owners of office buildings, as well as to the broader economy. If a significant number of owners default on their loans, it could lead to financial instability and a potential downturn in the real estate market. It remains to be seen how these challenges will be addressed and what impact they will have on the U.S. economy.
